Pangasius prices may gradually recover from the second half of 2024

Pangasius prices may gradually recover from the second half of 2024

       According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), by the end of November 2023, Vietnam's pangasius exports reached nearly 1.7 billion USD, down 26% over the same period last year. The average price of pangasius exports decreased in main markets, especially the US and China, pulling the value of pangasius exports lower than in 2022.

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       According to a recent assessment by SSI Research, based on historical data, it is expected to take about 1.5-2 years for pangasius prices to hit bottom and a full cycle of the industry takes place in about 4 years. Therefore, pangasius prices are forecast to recover positively from the second half of 2024 (corresponding to the fact that it will take 2 years for prices to bottom). Data currently shows that the total value of inventory in the US market remains high but has begun to decrease at a slow pace.

Referring back to the price of pangasius in the past 5 years, we will see more clearly the 4-year cycle for pangasius products.

 In 2018, Pangasius exports reached 2.29 billion (Peak price)

 In 2019, Pangasius exports reached 2 billion, down 11% compared to 2018

 In 2020, Pangasius exports reached 1.5 billion, down 25% compared to 2019, (bottom price)

 In 2021, Pangasius exports will reach 1.61 billion, an increase of 8% compared to 2020

 In 2022, Pangasius exports will reach 2.4 billion, up 49% compared to 2021. Peak price

 As of November 2023, Pangasius exports reached 1.4 billion, down 31% over the same period last year.

     So we can see that the fluctuation cycle for pangasius products is 2 years of increase and 2 years of decrease. Up to now, the pangasius industry has gone through the first year of the price reduction cycle, and it is estimated that there is one more year left for pangasius prices to reach the bottom. Thus, it is predicted that in the second quarter of 2024, the price of pangasius will recover again, after the world inventory is completely released.

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       We hope this market information can help you do business better.

       Made by: AT FOODS CONECTION CO., LTD – ATSEAFOOD team