Vietnam Seafood — Q3 2025 Update & Year‑End Outlook

Vietnam’s seafood industry closed Q3/2025 with solid momentum in shrimp and cephalopods, and a strategic shift in pangasius toward higher‑value products as exporters navigate trade policy uncertainty.
Executive summary

Vietnam’s seafood sector closed Q3 2025 on a resilient note. Strong demand from China and regional Asian buyers supported continued growth for shrimp and cephalopods, while pangasius exporters shifted toward higher‑value  to manage uncertainty from recent U.S. trade measures. Input costs (feed, logistics) remain a margin pressure and trade policy risks could affect shipments to the U.S. in Q4. Overall, exporters who diversify markets or upgrade to value‑added and certified products will be best positioned for year‑end orders.

Q3 highlights (July–mid September)

Pangasius (catfish) — Stable export volumes with a tilt to fillets and IQF products. Exporters focused on alternative markets and value‑added lines as U.S. tariff scrutiny introduced uncertainty for direct, low‑margin shipments.

Shrimp (whiteleg & tiger shrimp) — Continued strong performance YTD. Whiteleg shrimp made up the largest share of export value growth; China and Hong Kong recorded sharp increases in orders and values. Producers face feed price pressure and must maintain stringent biosecurity.

Cephalopods & molluscs (squid, octopus, other shellfish) — A bright spot: demand for squid and octopus rose in East Asia and Southeast Asia, especially for processed and sashimi‑grade products.

Market mix — China and Hong Kong became the fastest‑growing destination in H1–Q3 2025; the U.S. remains significant but more volatile due to mid‑2025 trade measures.
 

Forecast (Oct–Dec 2025)

Base case: Positive but moderated growth. China and regional markets will drive Q4 orders; exporters that bundle products (pangasius + shrimp + squid) and offer reliable, certified supply will capture more business.

Upside: Strong holiday demand in import markets plus successful traceability/certification campaigns lift prices and volumes.

Planning year‑end supply? Ask for our combined product pricing and weekly updates — reliable, certified shipments available

By AT Seafood Team
Source: Vasep